PrizePicks vs Underdog: The Real Break-Even Per Leg
Payout multipliers hide the only number that matters: how often each leg has to hit for the entry to break even. We converted every ladder to a per-leg price. The gap between apps is bigger than most people think.
Every pick'em app shows you a multiplier. A 4-pick power play pays 10x. A 6-pick flex pays 25x if you sweep, 2x if you miss one. The multipliers are true, and they are also the least useful way to compare apps, because they hide the only number a bettor needs: how often does each leg have to hit for this entry to break even?
Once you convert a ladder to a per-leg break-even, apps become directly comparable with each other and with a sportsbook. A leg that needs to hit 54.2% of the time is a -118 bet, whether the app calls it a "flex" or not. Below is every ladder on PrizePicks, Underdog and DraftKings Pick6 converted to that number, using the payout tables the apps publish and the ones we read off the apps themselves.
How the conversion works
Assume every leg in an entry has the same probability p of hitting, and that legs are independent. For an n-leg entry, the chance of exactly k hits is the binomial probability. Multiply each outcome by what the app pays for it, add them up, and you have the expected return on a $1 entry. The break-even is the p where that return is exactly $1.
For a power play the payout is all-or-nothing, so break-even is simply the n-th root of 1 divided by the multiplier. For a flex, the partial payouts change the answer, and not always in the direction you'd guess.
The table
Break-even per leg, with the equivalent American price. Lower is better for you.
| Entry | Payout | Break-even per leg | As a price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Underdog 4-pick flex | 7.2x / 1.8x | 51.8% | -107 |
| Underdog 2-pick power | 3.5x | 53.5% | -115 |
| Underdog 3-pick power | 6.5x | 53.6% | -115 |
| Underdog 4-pick power | 12x | 53.7% | -116 |
| Underdog 6-pick flex | 25x / 2.6x / 0.25x | 53.8% | -117 |
| PrizePicks 6-pick flex | 25x / 2x / 0.4x | 54.2% | -118 |
| PrizePicks 5-pick flex | 10x / 2x / 0.4x | 54.3% | -119 |
| Underdog 5-pick flex | 10x / 2.5x | 54.7% | -121 |
| PrizePicks 6-pick power | 37.5x | 54.7% | -121 |
| PrizePicks 3-pick power | 6x | 55.0% | -122 |
| PrizePicks 4-pick flex | 6x / 1.5x | 55.0% | -122 |
| Pick6 3-pick | 6x | 55.0% | -122 |
| Underdog 3-pick flex | 3.25x / 1.09x | 55.4% | -124 |
| PrizePicks 4-pick power | 10x | 56.2% | -128 |
| Pick6 4-pick | 10x | 56.2% | -128 |
| PrizePicks 2-pick power | 3x | 57.7% | -137 |
| PrizePicks 3-pick flex | 3x / 1x | 57.7% | -137 |
| Pick6 6-pick | 20x (floor) | 60.7% | -154 |
Payout tables as of September 2026. Underdog's 4-pick flex at 7.2x / 1.8x is what the app shows on its payout screen; the national table still lists 6x / 1.5x, which would be -119. Pick6 pays a guaranteed floor plus a share of the contest pool, so its real payouts can only be higher than the table.
What the table says
The gap between the best and worst entry is 47 cents on the dollar. A leg on Underdog's 4-pick flex needs to hit 51.8% of the time. The same leg in a PrizePicks 2-pick power needs 57.7%. That is the difference between -107 and -137. At a sportsbook, nobody would take -137 when -107 is available on the same bet across the street, but the multiplier framing makes it invisible.
Underdog's 4-pick flex is the best entry on any app, and it isn't close. It beats Underdog's own 6-pick flex by 2.1 points and PrizePicks' best entry by 3.4. The reason is the 1.8x consolation on three of four: it pays out often enough, and generously enough, to cover the times you miss one. This is the entry our board prices Underdog picks against by default.
Flex is not automatically better than power. PrizePicks' 3-pick flex (3x / 1x) is -137, the same as their 2-pick power. Getting your stake back on two of three sounds like insurance, but the price of that insurance is the 6x you'd have earned on the power play becoming 3x. Underdog's 3-pick flex is -124 against a 3-pick power at -115. On both apps, the small flexes are the worst entries available.
PrizePicks' edge is in the six-leg entries. The 6-pick flex at -118 is the best price PrizePicks offers. Everything shorter is worse, and the 2-pick and 3-pick entries, which are the ones the app pushes hardest to new users, are the worst of all.
Why the break-even changes when the line moves
Everything above assumes the app is quoting the same line as the market. Increasingly it isn't, in one of two ways. Some lines are simply moved: a receiving yards line a yard or two off the sportsbook median. Others keep the market line but carry a multiplier, so that the higher side of a 4.5-reception line pays 0.86x instead of 1x. A multiplier is a price. A 0.86x leg in a 4-pick flex is not a -107 leg anymore; the app is telling you that side is the favourite, and charging accordingly.
This is where per-leg thinking pays off. When you know the entry costs -107 per leg, you can compare a multiplied leg to the fair line from the sportsbooks and see whether the discount is fair or not. When all you know is "7.2x," you can't.
How to use this
Treat the per-leg price as the bar every pick has to clear. A leg that the de-vigged sportsbook market says hits 55% of the time is +EV on Underdog's 4-pick flex (bar: 51.8%) and -EV on a PrizePicks 4-pick power (bar: 56.2%). Same pick, same odds, opposite decisions. That's the whole reason to know the number.
Our Player Props board does this conversion for every pick on every app, pricing each leg against a fair line built from 20+ sportsbooks, and the slip builder computes the exact entry EV from the real ladder rather than the leg product. If you want to check a single leg yourself, the free devig calculator gives you the fair probability from any two-sided sportsbook line.